Page 13 - Taking Stock 22 Summer 2019

Summer 2019 Taking Stock Themes and strategies for 2019 TRADE WAR REMAINS THE BIGGEST RISK The US administration’s ‘trade war’ is now rmly focused on China and is the key source of global uncertainty, especially given the chaotic and disorderly manner in which trade-related issues unfolded through 2018. The rst few months of 2019 will be busy with negotiations following the temporary truce agreed at the November 2018 G20 meeting in Argentina. That 90-day truce expires at the end of February. We continue to believe the US needs to bring negotiations to a positive conclusion sooner rather than later, or at least before higher prices of both retail and production-input goods cause economic, and political, problems. But negotiations have started and failed before. A failure in this round of talks will be negative for growth and market sentiment. !BACK TO FEATURES 13